Settlers / Research

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Strategy atlas

A well-rounded player needs several kinds of judgment. Explore an idea, inspect its mechanism, and follow it to the experiment that could support or disprove it.

Proposed and tested directions in resource planning, uncertainty, learning, trading, and cooperation.

Showing 17 of 17 ideas

grainorewoolcitiescardsproduction portfolioroute to points

The islandTested

Opening portfolios

Should you maximize production, diversify, or commit to a powerful specialization?

current handmissing oretrade nowbuild sooner?waiting has an opportunity cost

The islandTested

Build tempo

Which next build converts your current resources into progress fastest?

your roadcontested sitenext option

The islandTested

Expansion and races

When is an expensive road worth buying before an opponent closes the route?

2 : 1matching surplusowned portneeded cardthe bank sets your outside option

The islandTested

Ports and market power

How does an outside option change what you should accept in a trade?

productionspendingcompatible handsevidence rules possibilities out

UncertaintyTested

Beliefs about hidden hands

How much should a player infer from production, spending, and refused trades?

diceresponsediceresponsechooseaverage

UncertaintyTested

Search under uncertainty

What should expectimax average over, and where does opponent choice enter?

possible progressrelative likelihoodsteadyswingy

UncertaintyTested

Risk and timing

When should a player prefer reliable progress or a volatile route to victory?

knightprogresshidden VPtiming

UncertaintyTested

Development and surprise

When does a hidden option justify delaying a visible build?

ore 8grain 6wool 5+0.02-0.07+0.31+0.04-0.01lookup tablesum = valueone window of many

UncertaintyTested

Learned pattern values

Can lookup tables of small board patterns, learned from self-play, replace the hand-written leaf and save a ply of search?

partner’s build gainyour build gainmutual gainmay fund a rival’s win

The conversationTested

Bilateral bargaining

How do you make a mutually useful trade without funding the winner?

offer“This fundsyour road.”same offer · a checkable explanation

The conversationProposal

Truthful signals

When does an honest explanation persuade more effectively than silence?

claimbelievedchallengedlater credibility can changeresponse today

The conversationProposal

Bluffs and disclosure

What is the value of a bluff after you count lost credibility and revealed information?

concederememberreciprocate?recover the cost over later turns

The conversationTested

Reciprocity and reputation

Can a small concession buy enough future cooperation to recover its cost?

reference scoresocial contextABCwithin budgetBC excluded: too costly

The conversationProposal

Bounded pliability

Should social context change expectimax itself, or rerank a bounded set of alternatives?

leaderyourivalrivalwho pays to block?

The tableTested

Leader containment

Who should pay to slow the leader, and when should you decline to help?

predictobserveupdateofferseveral explanationsconfidence grows slowly

The tableTested

Opponent adaptation

How quickly should a player change its strategy when an opponent behaves differently?

ABCA beats BB beats CC beats Ano universal ranking

The tableTested

Population and self-play

Does an approach remain strong when the table stops resembling its training partners?

Start with the player’s guide for the big picture, or the pliability laboratory for the tradeoff between a search recommendation and future cooperation. The experiment program turns these directions into controlled comparisons.

The registered fast and eta opponents come from the server’s Rust policy crate. legal-first is a legality and protocol example. expectimax-v1 is the frozen reference search and expectimax-v2 the tunable search studied under search. The other study briefs are proposals; they do not imply implemented policies.

Each approach keeps its bounded investigations in studies/. Their dated findings appear below the approach explanation and in the experiment log. See the research workflow when adding or continuing a study.