Settlers / Research

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Play the game

A compact experiment report

Lead with one finding and its scope. Put the result above the mechanism; readers should learn what happened before opening the implementation notes.

Report elementWhat it must answerExisting component
FindingDid the preregistered decision rule pass?ResearchCallout
OutcomeHow large is the effect, and how uncertain?ResearchChart for win rates
MechanismWhat single decision changed?StrategyFigure
DiagnosisWhat changed besides winning?ResearchPlot: distributions or score heatmaps
ExampleWhat did one preselected game look like?GameReplay
AuditCan someone trace every number and failure?AgentContext and linked run ledger

The liquidity experiment is the first worked example. Its score grid compares both policies within each game, and its exchange distribution asks whether behavior changed. Neither diagnostic substitutes for the primary win comparison.

What the example still needs

Next componentWhy it would help
Effect-size interval plot with a zero referenceCompare the actual policy contrast, beyond two separate win-rate intervals.
Public-safe decision traceShow the target, alternatives and value terms that caused a move; aggregate counts cannot establish that causal chain.
Protocol health stripSurface readiness, rate limits, retries, failures and unplayed games without burying them in logs.
Cohort comparison and population matrixKeep development separate from fresh evaluation, then show which full opponent lineups support a result.
Agent notes

New visual implementations belong in design and need Storybook states, keyboard checks and mobile QA. Web should only validate data and bind components. Do not hide custom SVG or arbitrary scripts inside reports.

The current arena has independent server-generated games, not paired seeds. Native decision latency is not a harness measurement. Verified local archives are not remote backups. Those are research infrastructure gaps as well as presentation constraints.