Settlers / Research

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The frozen candidate through the protocol arena

Win rate by competitor

95% interval
expectimax-v2-deep · slot 038.8% · n=80
eta · slot 131.3% · n=80
fast · slot 213.8% · n=80
eta · slot 316.3% · n=80
0%50%100%
Run e4949ebe-8132-4428-aae9-37ae1e0c3748. 80 completed of 80 planned games. 95% Wilson intervals; descriptive evidence only.

The lineup was the frozen depth-3 candidate (1.5 s budget, sixteen scenarios, eight sampled worlds), two ETA builders and one fast builder, rotated through every seat over 20 rounds. Twelve matches ran at once against one server, so the candidate's decisions shared the machine with eleven other searches; its budget is a wall clock, so contention makes it search less, never longer.

The other ETA slot won 13 games and the fast builder 11. Two identical ETA policies finishing 12 games apart is a reminder of how far unpaired 80-game cohorts move; the engine arena pairs boards to take that variance out of development comparisons.

This candidate was frozen before a turn-planning defect was found in the search (its inner turns collapsed to ending the turn, and non-ending root actions were valued without the opponents' round). The result stands as recorded for that exact binary and configuration; the corrected search is a new candidate and will have its own cohorts.

One game, viewed from above

The first scheduled game, selected by schedule rather than outcome.

fast slot 2’s turn

Turn 0 · Place a settlement · 10 points to win

Wool4Wool, rolls 4, 3 of 36 dice outcomesGrain11Grain, rolls 11, 2 of 36 dice outcomesBrick12Brick, rolls 12, 1 of 36 dice outcomesOre8Ore, rolls 8, 5 of 36 dice outcomesLumber3Lumber, rolls 3, 2 of 36 dice outcomesBrick6Brick, rolls 6, 5 of 36 dice outcomesWool9Wool, rolls 9, 4 of 36 dice outcomesGrain5Grain, rolls 5, 4 of 36 dice outcomesLumber10Lumber, rolls 10, 3 of 36 dice outcomesLumber11Lumber, rolls 11, 2 of 36 dice outcomesWool5Wool, rolls 5, 4 of 36 dice outcomesDesertDesert, blocked by the robberWool2Wool, rolls 2, 1 of 36 dice outcomesLumber9Lumber, rolls 9, 4 of 36 dice outcomesGrain4Grain, rolls 4, 3 of 36 dice outcomesBrick10Brick, rolls 10, 3 of 36 dice outcomesOre6Ore, rolls 6, 5 of 36 dice outcomesGrain3Grain, rolls 3, 2 of 36 dice outcomesOre8Ore, rolls 8, 5 of 36 dice outcomes2:1Grain 2:1 port3:1Any resource 3:1 port3:1Any resource 3:1 port2:1Lumber 2:1 port3:1Any resource 3:1 port2:1Wool 2:1 port2:1Brick 2:1 port2:1Ore 2:1 port3:1Any resource 3:1 port
Bank19Brick19Lumber19Wool19Grain19Ore25 development cards left

expectimax-v2-deep slot 0

0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0

eta slot 1

0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0

fast slot 2

Playing

0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0

eta slot 3

0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0

Actions & conversation

1 events · since the previous position

  1. Table

    The game started.

Game 1 in the scheduled cohort.

93 of 93 recorded positions. Board changes between positions are grouped.

Replay sources

Game b9d6e299-14ae-4485-8d8d-9818eaba843e · version 14

Frames: de85febbac98d365952f2e08a1a66b286da09f45e0cb2b85b2181221c7263232

Public events: d6602008199dcd386c823df6be9572a0ef550e0b42d319aa852f7018566d5e2e

Agent notes

Experiment e36c2351-eed2-49cc-9cc7-595d5029bf97 under study search/expectimax-v2; its first run f3933ecf-afbe-4fe4-839f-40777a9d280c is retained as invalid (no game started: the harness read the candidate's inline JSON braces as placeholders; the registry now doubles them). The rerun used just run e36c2351-eed2-49cc-9cc7-595d5029bf97 --parallel 12. The exact test counts wins by the candidate slot and the compared ETA slot only (31 against 25; P(X ≥ 31 | n = 56, p = 0.5) = 0.25). Public frame source SHA-256: de85febbac98d365952f2e08a1a66b286da09f45e0cb2b85b2181221c7263232. Attribution: Claude Fable 5.1 (claude-fable-5-1) through Claude Code.