Run e4949ebe-8132-4428-aae9-37ae1e0c3748. 80 completed of 80 planned games. 95% Wilson intervals; descriptive evidence only.
The lineup was the frozen depth-3 candidate (1.5 s budget, sixteen scenarios,
eight sampled worlds), two ETA builders and one fast builder, rotated through
every seat over 20 rounds. Twelve matches ran at once against one server, so
the candidate's decisions shared the machine with eleven other searches; its
budget is a wall clock, so contention makes it search less, never longer.
The other ETA slot won 13 games and the fast builder 11. Two identical ETA
policies finishing 12 games apart is a reminder of how far unpaired 80-game
cohorts move; the engine arena pairs boards to
take that variance out of development comparisons.
This candidate was frozen before a turn-planning defect was found in the search
(its inner turns collapsed to ending the turn, and non-ending root actions were
valued without the opponents' round). The result stands as recorded for that
exact binary and configuration; the corrected search is a new candidate and
will have its own cohorts.
One game, viewed from above
The first scheduled game, selected by schedule rather than outcome.
fast slot 2’s turn
Turn 0 · Place a settlement · 10 points to win
Bank19Brick19Lumber19Wool19Grain19Ore25 development cards left
E
expectimax-v2-deep slot 0
0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0
E
eta slot 1
0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0
F
fast slot 2
Playing
0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0
E
eta slot 3
0 VP
0 resource cards0 development cards0 settlements0 cities0 roads0 knights played
Longest route: 0
Actions & conversation
1 events · since the previous position
Table
The game started.
Game 1 in the scheduled cohort.
93 of 93 recorded positions. Board changes between positions are grouped.
Replay sources
Game b9d6e299-14ae-4485-8d8d-9818eaba843e · version 14
Public events: d6602008199dcd386c823df6be9572a0ef550e0b42d319aa852f7018566d5e2e
Agent notes
Experiment e36c2351-eed2-49cc-9cc7-595d5029bf97 under study
search/expectimax-v2; its first run f3933ecf-afbe-4fe4-839f-40777a9d280c
is retained as invalid (no game started: the harness read the candidate's
inline JSON braces as placeholders; the registry now doubles them). The rerun
used just run e36c2351-eed2-49cc-9cc7-595d5029bf97 --parallel 12. The exact
test counts wins by the candidate slot and the compared ETA slot only
(31 against 25; P(X ≥ 31 | n = 56, p = 0.5) = 0.25). Public frame source
SHA-256: de85febbac98d365952f2e08a1a66b286da09f45e0cb2b85b2181221c7263232.
Attribution: Claude Fable 5.1 (claude-fable-5-1) through Claude Code.